The Philippines enters the final stretch of 2025 with a more stable macro-financial backdrop as inflation continues to cool, and foreign reserves strengthen. Meanwhile, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) moves to reassure the public of frictionless access to large-value funds — developments closely watched by banks, fintech players, and investors navigating a still-fragile global environment.
Inflation eases to 1.5% — well within BSP’s target
Headline inflation slowed to 1.5% in November, down from 1.7% in October and firmly within the BSP’s 1.1%–1.9% forecast for the month. The latest print brings average inflation for January to November to 1.6%, significantly below the government’s 3.0% ± 1.0 ppt target band.
The main drivers:
- Food inflation eased, supported by improved meat supply following the lifting of the chicken import ban
- Vegetable supply stabilized, dampening price pressures
- Rice prices continued to fall, though at a slower pace
- Non-food inflation edged higher due to pricier electricity and petroleum products
Month-on-month seasonally adjusted inflation stood at 0.0%, while core inflation likewise eased to 2.4% from 2.5%.
BSP said the data reinforces a “benign inflation environment”, though it remains vigilant of global and domestic risks, maintaining its data-dependent approach to monetary policy.
For market players — especially in lending, digital banking, and payments — soft inflation supports expectations of more predictable borrowing costs and steadier consumer demand through early 2026.
GIR climbs to US$111.1B, boosting the country’s liquidity buffer
This level provides the country with:
- 7.4 months’ worth of import cover (vs. the adequacy rule of 3 months)
- 3.8x coverage of short-term external debt based on residual maturity
The reserve build-up — composed of foreign securities, FX reserves, and gold holdings — bolsters the country’s ability to stabilize the peso, meet external obligations, and counter external shocks.
For fintech firms handling remittances, multicurrency accounts, and cross-border payments, a strong GIR position reduces volatility risk and supports more predictable FX environments for customers.
BSP reassures public: “Large-value funds remain accessible”
In a parallel show of macro strength, the Philippines’ Gross International Reserves (GIR) rose to US$111.1 billion as of end-November, according to preliminary BSP data.
Amid rising consumer inquiries on large withdrawals, the BSP reiterated that customers remain fully allowed to access amounts above ₱500,000, whether in peso or foreign currency.
Under Circular No. 1218, withdrawals made through traceable channels — including online bank transfers, checks, and digital payment rails — no longer require additional documentation.
Cash withdrawals above ₱500,000 simply require proof of legitimate purpose, such as a deed of sale or hospital bill. The BSP emphasizes that:
- The review process must be straightforward,
- Access must be timely, and
- Requirements are part of standard customer due diligence, not added red tape.
The central bank said the policy aims to combat financial crimes while promoting the use of secure and traceable digital payment channels, not to burden legitimate businesses or consumers. FAQs were issued in October following industry consultations with banks, fintech firms, and government units.
A more stable backdrop for fintech, credit markets, digital payments
Taken together, the Philippines end 2025 with a macro landscape that, while not without risks, shows stronger footing:
- Inflation remains comfortably subdued, giving banks and digital lenders clearer visibility on interest rate paths.
- The peso enjoys a robust external liquidity buffer, keeping FX markets more stable for fintechs handling remittances and cross-border flows.
- Payment policy reforms aim to balance crime prevention with customer convenience, supporting the broader migration to digital rails.
As the BSP continues to fine-tune regulations and maintain stability across inflation, reserves, and financial access, market analysts expect a more conducive environment for capital markets, digital finance expansion, and consumer spending heading into 2026.
